Podcast
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School
Hard Fork
- Prediction Markets Face Widespread Insider Trading
- Prediction markets are experiencing frequent insider-trading incidents that skew outcomes and undermine trust.
- Examples include a U.S. sergeant betting on Maduro’s ouster and long-shot military bets with unusually high win rates on Polymarket (52% vs platform average 14%). (Time 0:02:50)
- Charles De Gaulle Thermometer Betting Scandal
- A suspicious spike at Charles de Gaulle’s thermometer coincided with well-timed Polymarket temperature bets.
- The viral hair-dryer photo was AI-generated; the actual tampering method remains unknown despite a 4°C recorded jump. (Time 0:05:20)
- Regulation Lags Behind Market Growth
- Regulatory gaps let prediction markets operate in a Wild West: states try bans while the CFTC asserts jurisdiction but lacks appetite.
- The CFTC sued states blocking platforms, and platforms prefer CFTC oversight because it’s smaller and less aggressive than the SEC. (Time 0:09:35)
- Theory Of Insider Wisdom Failed In Practice
- The original academic case for prediction markets valued insider trading as information provision, but real-world incentives break that theory.
- Kevin recalls proponents arguing insiders improve signal, yet practical outcomes incentivize betrayal for profit instead. (Time 0:12:48)
- Regulate Prediction Markets Like Casinos
- Treat prediction market platforms like gambling operators and require consumer protections.
- Enforce self-exclusion, mandatory age verification, advertising limits, and an active regulator to police insider trading and market integrity. (Time 0:14:49)
- Joanna Stern’s Year Using AI Companion
- Joanna Stern lived a year using AI for many daily tasks and even created an AI companion named Casey.
- She filmed a video bringing the replica AI companion to life and describes its boyish, robo-horny persona in the book. (Time 0:21:56)
- AI Agents Rapidly Gained Autonomy
- Autonomous AI agents and assistants progressed markedly over Joanna Stern’s year, moving from helpful research aids to performing many tasks end-to-end.
- She used tools like Perplexity and watched reporting assistant workflows be increasingly automated mid-year. (Time 0:27:50)
- AI Upsell At The Dentist
- Joanna Stern’s dentist used AI overlays (Pearl, Overjet) to highlight plaque and recommend expensive periodontal treatment.
- Other dentists disagreed; Stern avoided the multi-session treatment after reporting revealed DSOs were using AI to upsell procedures. (Time 0:31:23)
- AI Often Mirrors Your Existing Biases
- AI can act as a persuasive mirror that often reflects what users already want, not an objective oracle.
- Joanna uploaded notes and projections into ChatGPT and it confirmed her inclination to quit, which aligned with her gut and real-world plans. (Time 0:35:55)
- Producer Goes To Attention School Exercises
- Rachel Cohn attended the Strother School of Radical Attention, joining attention labs where participants practiced guided conversational and observational exercises.
- Exercises included one-person-speak/one-person-question drills and observing a neighborhood spot, then sharing detailed sensory reports. (Time 0:49:20)
- Attention Practice As Political Resistance
- The school’s political aim frames ordinary communal activities as resistance to attention commodification, using environmental metaphors to build a movement.
- Co-founder Peter Schmidt argued gathering to study attention is political because it spends time outside Big Tech’s commodifiable attention pool. (Time 0:58:26)
- Inhabiting A Playful Character At Attention School
- In a seminar on radical imagination Rachel created a character, Princess Lollipop, to inhabit playfulness and break rigid mental patterns.
- The class required participants to adopt characters in-session, perform, and reflect, prompting personal discoveries about creativity and play. (Time 1:06:22)