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Podcast

Palantir CEO Alex Karp on the Zero-Sum AI Race

The a16z Show

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  • Technology Restored American Deterrence
    • Military superiority is decisive for national power and technology is a core enabler.
    • Alex Karp ties U.S. deterrence in recent operations to decades of tech, meritocratic military culture, and battlefield software integration. Transcript: Erik Torenberg So over the weekend, the US and Israel bombed Iran and Operation Epic Fury. Ayatollah Khomeini is dead. The Middle East is now at war. What do you think the situation means for the future of the West, something you talk a lot about, and the future of America? Alex Karp Well, first of all, I’m delighted to be on stage with you. And for many of you in this audience, by the way, I’ve been talking so much, I’m kind of losing my voice. I wouldn’t have probably canceled on anyone but you. Erik Torenberg Well, that means a lot. We’re glad you’re here. Alex Karp I love to cancel, by the way, for those of you, because it’s my favorite thing, because actually I’m an introvert. (Time 0:02:35)
  • Palantir Frames Work As Saving Lives
    • Palantir focuses on saving warfighters’ lives by improving battlefield effectiveness.
    • Karp states their work makes American warfighters more likely to come home, framing Palantir as life-saving rather than surveillance. Transcript: Alex Karp And I’m proud, very proud that at Palantir, we get arrows and people, I mean, half the people attacking us. It’d be good if they spent two minutes on Wikipedia, at least learning the talking points they’re regurgitating. But, you know, there’s some legitimate criticisms of any company. But at the end of the day, the fact is the most important thing Palantir is doing that other people in this room are doing and people like you and other people adjacent or ancillary to building More lethal and deadly weapons is to make sure that American war fighters are much more likely to come home. (Time 0:05:23)
  • Engage With Defense Or Face Nationalization
    • Silicon Valley must engage with defense and communities to avoid political backlash and risk of nationalization.
    • Karp warns that perceived job loss and elite isolation will make nationalization politically attractive. Transcript: Alex Karp Now you get to Silicon Valley. My one message for, and again, I’m without getting in specific people or because I’m like, if Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone’s white collar job, meaning Primarily democratic shaped people whom I grew up with, highly educated people who went to elite schools or went to schools that are almost elite who vote for one party. And you’re going to screw the military. If you don’t think that’s going to lead to nationalization of our technology, you’re retarded. And you might be particularly retarded because you have a 160 IQ. But this is where that path is going. (Time 0:10:26)
  • AI Is Zero Sum Between Nations
    • AI competition is zero-sum geopolitically even if firms act competitively among themselves.
    • Karp says politicians will make it zero-sum nationally, turning tech leadership into a strategic, non-neutral issue. Transcript: Alex Karp This? Well, I mean, first of all, it’s, by the way, I just want to push back slightly. They do think it’s zero sum. They think it’s zero sum versus each other. So, like, they absolutely are fighting. There will be, like, you know, it’s my own rhetoric, but I happen to think it’s true. It’s going to be chips, ontology, and I suspect in the end, one, one and a half provider. So they pretend they don’t think it’s zero sum, but then ask them how they feel about their competitor. Yeah, that’s true. So it’s very, very, I mean, these people are fighting very, very hard for the dominant position. So, like, what they don’t understand is in the world, it’s zero sum. But I actually think the primary issue in the valley is it’s going to be zero sum vis-a you when America decides it. Okay. I interact with a lot of political figures. I have a lot of respect. I think in some are, when politicians figure out this is the one winning issue, it is going to be zero sum. It’s going to be your money and your company being zero sum nationalized. So that’s the part they don’t understand. Helping people understand that, you know, either we set the rules or de facto, like I’m much more on (Time 0:13:10)
  • Proactively Self-Regulate AI Industry
    • Form industry-wide self-regulation like Hollywood’s ratings to preempt heavy-handed government rules.
    • Karp is already convening leaders to craft frameworks before policymakers impose blunt solutions. Transcript: Alex Karp And that’s why I want you to send this first step. We have to, they’re not understanding the stakes. And what I, nothing’s going to happen until people understand the stakes. This will affect you. Now, then the question is like what Hollywood did is Hollywood got together. The whole rating system was Hollywood realized if we don’t do ratings, Washington’s going to. And Washington is going to butcher it. And let’s even say Washington doesn’t want to butcher it, but like it doesn’t understand the métier. So the first step is everybody, and I’m already on the phone with people saying, okay, great, I understand your issue, but you realize the wolves are at the gate and they already have Tasted blood. (Time 0:19:25)
  • Balance Privacy And Battlefield Needs
    • Address both privacy concerns and battlefield effectiveness with granular, bipartisan policies.
    • Karp says public fears over Fourth Amendment issues and economic impact must be unpacked alongside concrete battlefield safeguards. Transcript: Alex Karp The second step is we have to find ways where we get together and say, okay, like if you just want to go through the issues, yes, there are, you know, using technologies in the context of Eviscerating Fourth Amendment rights in America is something left and right in this country actually don’t want. It’s a caricature to believe that either side wants it. There are people on the—honestly, I’m in private rooms. There are people on the left who don’t care about these issues, who pretend to do it in public. But there are people—and there are people on the right who pretend not to care who do care. Both parties have significant coalitions and the American people care, and it’s in our constitution. But then you have to be very granular about what’s going to happen on the battlefield because the two issues Americans care about are their prosperity and their safety. So if the two things that Silicon Valley has to figure out is, how are we going to ethically talk about what’s going to happen to our economy? In my view, you could create a lot of prosperity with trade-shaped people. Okay, but what is going to happen to the white-collar workers? And what are we going to do? That’s one issue. And then we’re not going to agree, but we have to have something like we’re going to do these initiatives just like Hollywood did. And then you’re going to have to have a discussion on the battlefield where the rebuttable presumption, meaning it doesn’t happen, is that we are going to do the maximal amount to make Sure our warfighters come home safely. And if you are sitting in Silicon Valley making an argument that somehow would eviscerate that, or conversely, you’re not able to understand what Silicon Valley is saying, meaning There’s going to have to be a medium. Without going into details on all these breakdowns, because I was in the middle of it and I want to stay in the middle of it, there are substantive issues and there are cultural issues. (Time 0:20:10)
  • Go To Bases And Meet Warfighters
    • CEOs should meet warfighters and visit bases to build empathy and credibility.
    • Karp recommends founders go to Iowa or military bases so they can explain tech’s benefits to diverse constituents. Transcript: Erik Torenberg Yeah. Well, and you’ve been building a bridge between these cultures for 20 years. I mean, that’s what’s so interesting. I mean, that’s in some ways why we have this conference is to bring together people who speak two different languages, very different value sets and try to get them aligned. I’d love your advice for these founders who maybe are new. You know, it’s sort of like that meme, the first time meme with the Coen Brothers film, you know, where it’s like a lot of these people are having their first conversations with the Department Of War. Or they don’t, maybe they don’t have any family in the military. Maybe they’ve never met a warfighter. What is your advice to some of these CEOs who are maybe new to these conversations that you’ve been having for 20 years now? Alex Karp Well, the best thing you could do is go to Iowa or go to a base and have a, like, I don’t think, look, put it this way, maybe the first time – it’s probably not PG, but I’m happily not married, Not divorced, so don’t follow how I live. But you don’t have to – maybe if you’re going to meet somebody, you really want to oppress it. Maybe you have an advantage if it’s your third girlfriend or boyfriend, not your first. Like, go have a conversation with somebody. Like, if you’re going to meet a general or somebody like that, and you’ve never talked to somebody who’s actually done something on the battlefield, or someone who has family who’s Done something on the battlefield, and you don’t have any, and because of that, you don’t have an ability to emphasize with their perspective, that’s probably a huge mistake. Yeah. And it’s probably going to backfire. (Time 0:22:27)
  • Don’t Assume You’re Expert In Everything
    • Be honest about your team’s aptitude and avoid overconfidence when entering defense deals.
    • Karp warns Valley leaders often assume competence across domains and get hurt negotiating or deploying hardware-software-AI mixes. Transcript: Alex Karp Like, you know, Silicon Valley tech builders, broadly defined hardware, software, AI, I would say we build in the military context, essentially software scaffolding much more like, In a weird way, more like hardware, software, but it’s in software managing LLMs. It is the single biggest mistake people make in this area is because they’re intelligent in one area, they assume they’re intelligent in all areas. And a big failure mechanism in the Valley is every Valley person is forced to present as if they’re the smartest in all areas at all time. That’s like, if you don’t know who the mark is, you’re the mark. Like if you think you’re the smartest, so I’m dyslexic. And I think one of the reasons I’ve done so well is I do think I’m one of the better people at certain things, at least I believe it. And I know I’m not at everything. It’s a very small, it’s like, but a failure mode for the Valley is I’m the smartest on every issue. I, for example, I need to be the person negotiating this contract. What if you have no aptitude for that? Just because you can do X does not mean you’ve imputed high aptitude at Y. In fact, it’s very unlikely it’s true. Yeah. It’s almost certain that you’re just not smart enough to realize how bad you are. (Time 0:23:59)
  • Neurodivergent Talent Is America’s Edge
    • Palantir’s strength comes from recruiting neurodivergent outlier talent and protecting their liberties.
    • Karp credits systems like Maven and unique individual contributors for rapid, targeted capabilities across battlefields. Transcript: Alex Karp Presumably after a Palantir, I am helping them to express something that only they can do at that moment. And if you look at our products and what we’ve done, it is actually true. Even what we’re doing in like right now, all across the Middle East and obviously in America, each single product at each single part was built by the one person in the world that could Have done it. And then I have to somehow get them to do things that they don’t actually think are valuable, but on their terms. And that’s basically my job because at that level of aptitude, you can’t just say, do this idiot. Because they’re like, why would I do that? You’re the idiot. Palantirians, ex-Palantirians and current Palantirians is when you’re at Palantir, you’re not learning to actually follow my playbook. You’re learning to follow your playbook where I’m inserting some things that may not have occurred to you. Maybe you don’t know I’m doing that to make sure that your playbook gets rid of your dyslexia. Basically, I’m anti-dyslexifying your playbook, but around you. And if you take like the, I don’t know, there’s so many really important ex-Palantirians, what you’ll see is they’re a kind of classic people and they’re not going to build the same company Palantir was. They’re also not going to build the same company of the, an ex-personalist Palantir. And that’s why they play such a disproportional role. And at the end of the day, that’s why Palantir is like playing such a big role because like Foundry, PG, Apollo, Ontology, the management of Ontology, Maven, which is like, you know, We’ve just like been able to target in a way no other country can. It’s like the other countries are like, what the happened here? Like we were thinking Afghanistan. Like, what is this? Meaning our retreat, like meaning. And like America has reestablished deterrence. That actually just happened. It’s happened in the last year. Like that right, left, center. I don’t care what party you’re in, in private, obviously you can’t say this in public, in private, that is a phenomenal asset that America now has that it did not have. And there are lots of reasons for it. But a one, maybe not the most important, is a concatenation of the most unusual, in some cases, otherwise, maybe not fully functional talent, around building something that was an Absolutely scandalous, unpopular dream rejected by many people called Maven. (Time 0:28:37)